Shanghai natural rubber futures rose 0.71% in early trading on January 26. The market feared that Germany and France could not reach a rescue agreement and the selling price increased. Nevertheless, the Chinese government has hinted at a possible moderate easing of austerity policy, and the risk of the European debt crisis has fallen sharply, continuing to boost the market. Spot rubber prices are also improving, and Thailand's supply is tight.

New York Mercantile Futures Exchange crude oil contracts closed at $93.17 in December, up $1.90 or 2.08%. EU leaders are unlikely to confirm the size of the euro zone bailout fund at Wednesday's summit or announce the amount of capital needed to recapitalize European banks, but will announce a Greek debt impairment, with private creditors expected to hold about 60 per cent of the debt impairment. A series of companies posted mixed results, while optimistic expectations for a comprehensive solution to the European debt crisis faded, and the U.S. stock market fell, dragging down the crude oil market. Nevertheless, the strong trend of crude oil in the previous trading day was sustained, driven by rising manufacturing in China and concerns about falling inventories. Rising crude oil will increase the cost of synthetic rubber and benefit the natural rubber market.

Weather conditions: Thai natural rubber producing area, cloudy north-central Thailand, rainy south; Malaysian producing area, rainy south Malay Peninsula, rainy north of Kalimantan Island; Indonesian producing area, rainy north of Sumatra Island equator, cloudy south of Sumatra Island equator, rainy south of Kalimantan Island; Chinese producing area, Hainan shower, cloudy Yunnan. In recent years, the impact of weather on rubber cutting production and transportation has been reduced.

In the Asian spot market, prices remained stable on the previous trading day. A major producer in southern Thailand said floods in Thailand caused some buyers to delay their shipments for about a week. Traders from one of Bangkok's leading exporters said that limited shipments of Linchaban, Thailand's main agricultural product port (13.31, 0.18, 1.37%), had to be transported by another route, and flooding had flooded the roads. Thai Tyre Class Standard Rubber STR20, shipped in November/December, was reported at 400 cents per kilogram. On the 26th, the official offer of Malaysian standard glue SMR20 for November FOB remained stable in the morning.

In other respects, Wen Jiabao of the State Council stressed that we should correctly understand the current economic situation, accurately judge the trend change of economic trend, grasp the direction, strength and rhythm of macroeconomic regulation and control, pay more attention to the pertinence, flexibility and foresight of policies, timely and moderately adjust and fine-tune, maintain the reasonable growth of the total amount of money and credit, optimize the financing structure and improve financial clothing. Level of service. We should improve fiscal and taxation policies and vigorously promote structural tax reduction. This may be a signal of moderate policy easing, which is beneficial to the futures market.

Overall, the prospects for commodity markets are relatively optimistic. The market speculated that Germany and France could not reach an agreement in a day or two, because the differences were too big, the selling price was depressed. However, Germany and France hold two summits, and the agreement will eventually be reached, and investors'concerns will soon dissipate. Pressure on European debt will ease in the near future, and China's policy will not continue to tighten. Premier Wen Jiabao has said that the policy needs to be fine-tuned, suggesting that further interest rate increases or reserve increases are not an option. The pressure on the rubber market from the periphery has dropped. Worries about a sharp decline in demand seem unnecessary. Liquidity will not fall sharply as Europe throws out large rescue funds and the Fed may need to buy more bonds. Purchases in the rubber market will be restored to a certain extent, and the floods in Thailand have affected the transportation of rubber. Spot prices have responded. However, this was offset by the decline in Thai car production. Rubber supply has become more abundant, which is the opposite of the same period in recent two years. Therefore, it is difficult for prices to return to historical highs, and the rebound will not be strong.